Potential Impact on Energy

While the Iran conflict doesn’t necessarily fit directly into the framework of a green, environmental-themed blog, it’s not too far removed either.  The potential impact on energy markets if Israel should decide to attack Tehran’s nuclear enrichment facilities could put alternative energy sources into the spotlight like never before.
 
It’s hard to get a read on some of the latest scuttlebutt (the Saudis reportedly opening up air space, US navy fleet moving into the Red Sea, etc.), especially since sanctions were literally just approved and we won’t know how effective they are for some time.  But while the refrain that Iran is just “a year away” from having a weapon is now over a decade old, I do think the second half of 2010 will be a critical juncture as Iran enriches more and more uranium to 20%. The road from 20% to 90% percent isn’t nearly as long as the road from zero to 3.5% or 5%.
 
That and the Israelis are probably feeling more isolated/threatened than they have in years in the wake of the flotilla incident. I really wouldn’t put it past them to throw caution to the wind and give it their best shot. The havoc that would wreak – not just in the Strait of Hormuz and in global energy markets, but for US efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan – probably wouldn’t be worth the price…but something tells me that the pros and cons are measured slightly differently within the Netanyahu cabinet.
 
Something to keep an eye on.